Tuesday, February 19, 2008

Wisconsin Democratic Primary Delegate Prediction: Obama 40, Clinton 34

There have been several polls since the Wisconsin prediction I made on Friday. However, nothing has really changed based on those polls, so the delegate estimates for Wisconsin remains the same. If the polling is correct, Obama would receive 40 delegates to Clinton's 34. As always, these estimates are based on the polling averages generated by Pollster.com.

There has been one notable quirk in the surveying over the weekend. The polling produced by American Research Group has been quite volatile. On Saturday, ARG was the only polling firm to show Clinton with a lead in Wisconsin, 49%-43%. However, two days later, ARG's polling now resembles most of the other surveys that have been conducted in the state, giving Obama a 52%-40% lead. Surely there wasn't a shift in support that was this significant over two days, so what is really going on here?

In the last several states, the polling has understated Obama's support, so it will be interesting to see if that happens in Wisconsin as well. Wisconsin has an open primary, so will independents vote overwhelmingly in the Democratic contest, providing more support for Obama? Or has Clinton gained any traction by focusing on the state in the last several days?

It seems like most of the pundits expect Obama to win, but not by as much as he has in the last several states. Thus, an Obama loss would be a blow to his momentum in the race. The Clinton campaign has seriously contested Wisconsin, so they can't really afford to lose the state 60%-40%. The polling in Texas is already starting to tighten, and another Obama blow out would not help the Clinton campaign at all.

No comments: