I generated the most recent predictions on February 16th. Since then, 36 superdelegates (for whom I generated predictions) announced their support for either Obama or Clinton. Using these endorsements, we can once again test the accuracy of the model. As always, I am using the Democratic Convention Watch site for data on which superdelegates have endorsed which candidate.
The model correctly predicted the support for 75% of these 36 superdelegates, slightly better than the first model performed. Overall, the models have correctly predicted 71% of the delegates since I began generating the estimates. Among the endorsements that the model correctly predicted were those of Senators Chris Dodd, Byron Dorgan, Jay Rockefeller, and Russ Feingold (all for Obama).
UPDATED on 2/4
NOTE: I will be using the updated endorsement information to generate new predictions after the March 4th primaries.