Wednesday, February 6, 2008

Super Tuesday...Final Thoughts

Ok, it is 2am and I'm done. But not before I leave with you with a few final thoughts.

First, NM is still neck-and-neck. Looks like Obama and Clinton will likely split those delegates relatively evenly.

Second, I've been pushing this story for a week now, but I want to push it one more time. There is nothing that I know of that would stop MI or FL from holding a delegate selection event later in the calendar that would count toward delegates. This would probably be a caucus, but how could either state party resist holding such an event as it now becomes clear that every delegate is going to be critical?

Third, is McCain essentially unstoppable now? Or will the conservatives rally behind Huckabee in an attempt to derail him? I happen to think that even if conservatives did rally, it would still be relatively impossible to stop McCain. But it will be very interesting to watch this play out in the next few days.

Fourth, who has the momentum on the Democratic side? Obama seems to do very well in caucuses, which suggests he will win some contests this weekend. The feeling around here is that he would also be advantaged in the Potomac Primary held on Chesapeake Tuesday (just to use both terms). What happens if he build some serious momentum from those contests? Can Clinton stop that momentum in OH and/or TX?

Fifth, will we have any big endorsements in the next few days?

Sixth, how far off will my pre-Super Tuesday predictions be? On Monday, I estimated Clinton would win 821 delegates today, Obama 746, and I did not predict 122 in states where we had no polling. Those 122 were in caucus states where Obama did very well, which probably helped him make up a lot of that gap. I'll post in the next day or so a check-up on how close I was, and then I'll start looking for polling for my Potomac Primary Prediction.

And with that wonderful alliteration, I'm off. I had a great time, and I can't wait to do it again in a week. Hope you'll join us.

3 comments:

Arkhamite said...

Okay, now what do you think about the Second Coming, alien abduction, and the JFK assassination?
;-)
-Keith E.-

Anonymous said...

Brian,
I had to catch up with your blog this morning...you know me and my early hours! Anyway, even after reading the news reports this morning, I found your postings extremely interesting and educational.
I'll look forward to the next chapter in this fascinating saga. (Glad to see you had so many visitors last night!)
KS

Anonymous said...

Wow Bri, pretty impressive, that being said...I'm not going to say much more as there's a lot of brilliance on this site. However...hard to believe we share the same bloodline. Love ya!!!

Laura =)