Democratic Delegate Estimates for Upcoming Primaries

We've finally got some polls (and here) for upcoming primaries, particularly those in Washington state, Virginia, Maryland, and Wisconsin (is it that hard to poll DC?...and what about Louisiana?). Thus, I've produced some predictions/estimates on how the candidates will fare in the delegate battle this weekend, in Tuesday's Potomac Primary (or Chesapeake Tuesday), and next weekend. If and when new polling data becomes available, I will update the estimates.

We have polling for 4 of the 9 states holding Democratic delegate selection events over the next 8 days. Those surveys show Obama holding a lead over Clinton in 3 of the 4 states. Based on these polls, Obama should pick up 5 or so delegates in Washington state over the weekend. After that, the Potomac primary could be a pretty big day for Obama, as he is currently projected to have a 43 delegate lead over Clinton in Maryland and Virgina (and he should probably fare well in DC as well). Fortunately for Clinton, polling out of Wisconsin shows her with about a 10 delegate advantage in the polling in that state.

While I have not been able to locate any polling in the remaining states, most political analysts expect Obama to fare quite well in most of those primaries/caucuses. He is expected to do well in Louisiana (partly because of the large African American population) and Nebraska (because he fared well in all the caucuses in that region on Super Tuesday) on Saturday. Maine, on the other hand, should be more fertile ground for Clinton due to the state's significant blue collar population. The remaining state, Hawaii, is one to which Obama has childhood ties. Therefore, he is expected to do well there also.

Thus, based on the polling and conventional wisdom, Obama should gain between 40-70 more delegates than Clinton over the next eight days.

As always, refer to my first Super Tuesday estimate post for information on how I generate the estimates. Keep in mind that polling in caucus states is notoriously error-prone, so the number for Washington state should be taken with more caution.

I will update if more polling data becomes available. I also hope to post a few times tomorrow evening to discuss the results from what could only be called "Hangover Saturday."