Tuesday, February 5, 2008

Too Close to Call

12:54 am
Even with Hillary taking the biggest prize of the night - California - the race for the nomination is still pretty much 50-50, way too close to call. So now we look ahead to states that have not had a say in a presidential nomination in recent memory: Maryland, Virginia, the District of Columbia, Ohio, Texas...

Let's all take a step back from our delegate tallies and remember the conversation just a few months (weeks?) ago that focused on how frontloaded the nomination calendar was, how both parties would have a nominee after only a few small states had voted. How different the race has turned out! And how sad I am that my home state of Michigan had a chance to hold a meaningful Democratic primary (with Internet voting) on February 9. Instead, this race will likely end as it began: with Democratic party leaders arguing about rules and regulations. Then, it was about the injustice of small states going first versus other states jumping ahead of them. Now, it will be about the delegations from the sanctioned states that are also, or course, ironically, important battleground states. The DNC will have to do something to re-franchise the delegates in Michigan and Florida. At this point, it is pretty much anyone's guess what that something might be.

11:00 pm
Sorry I am joining late (2 toddlers to put to bed and too much excitement in our house with an election watch party!)

But in a way I feel like I haven't missed much, at least in big picture terms... we seem to be where most predicted we would be in the Dem contest, with Hillary and Obama winning pretty much what they were expected to win and NBC reporting that California is too close to call.

Of note perhaps, how well Hillary did in Mass? Did Sen. Kennedy's (and Gov. Patrick's) endorsement of Obama mean nothing? I am also surprised to see TN and MO called so early for Hillary.

As for the Republicans, I feel like we have turned back the clock to a week ago when this was a 3-man race. Also, it seems like their voter turnout has been low compared to Dem turnout.

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