Tuesday, February 5, 2008

Super Hour of Super Tuesday (8pm-9pm)


MSNBC calls IL for Obama and OK for Clinton.
MSNBC calls CT, IL and NJ for McCain and MA for Romney.

This is where the real fun begins. Isn't this so much more interesting than spending 5 hours on Ohio?


Looks like CNN made the same calls.


Since CT and NJ are winner take all, calling those states for McCain means that he has picked up 79 delegates. MA has a proportional allocation, so it remains unclear how many delegates Romney and McCain will each pick up there.

FOX has called AL for Huckabee.


MSNBC goes more into the exit polls...Clinton is winning Hispanics 61%-38%. What does that mean for the race, particularly in CA?


Keith Olberman is getting a little carried away now...getting way too excited about vote counts with less than 1% of precincts reporting. Calm down Keith, it is going to be a long night.


NYT is reporting that NBC is rescinding its call of OK for Clinton and that FOX has called TN for Clinton.


And NBC has now joined in on the TN call.


The broadcast news outlets and blogs appear to be abuzz with talk that the Obama camp is ramping up their expectations. One question: why do that?


Here comes Arkansas...immediate call for Clinton and Huckabee?


Answer: Yes.


There appears to be some discrepancy between the exit polls leaked earlier and the exit polls now being posted on the network websites as the polls close. I'll update the delegate estimate based on the exit poll numbers on the network sites as those go up.


I'm about to revise the delegate estimate based on the exit poll numbers. My revised numbers show Obama 727, Clinton 699, and 298 in states without exit polling.


The Clinton campaign is bragging about the red states that they've won...AR, TN, and OK.


Something interesting I found when going through the exit polls. About 6% in TN reported voting for John Edwards who, as you may have heard, left the race a week ago. Pretty strong support for a guy who is not in the race...why is that?

On MSNBC, Bill Richardson has taken advantage of his withdrawal of the race to grow a Gore-like beard.


NBC has called MA for Clinton. The exit polls showed Clinton and Obama virtually tied there.

9pm poll closings coming up. Any chance they'll be able to call NY for Clinton right away?


Anonymous said...

Clinton is going to have a better night than the exits suggest (although that will not be difficult). This smells similar to 2004. A possible rule of thumb: The great the number of exit poll leaks, the less representative the exit polls.

Anonymous said...

Edwards in TN, lots of early voting in the state

Brian Schaffner said...

But early voting shouldn't show up in the exit polls, should it?