Tuesday, February 5, 2008

Georgia and the run-up to 8pm (7pm-8pm)


All the networks call Georgia for Obama. Evidently the networks are calling Georgia a 3-way race for Republicans--should be very interesting to see how that shakes out.

Question about Obama's quest for delegates in Georgia: Since 57 delegates are allocated at the congressional district level, will Obama be helped or hurt by the fact that Georgia has a couple of majority-minority districts?


MSNBC is reporting that Obama got over 40% of the white vote. That is an impressive figure.

Of course, the margin for Obama is more important than winning the state, but the fact that they could call it right away suggests he will have a significant margin.

If there is nothing to report on the Republican side, Obama will get an hour's worth of favorable news coverage before the 8:00pm polls close. Could this possibly affect how people vote on the West Coast?


Leaked exit polls...read with caution.


Sorry to be MIA for a while there. As you can see above, I was creating a new delegate estimate based on leaked exit polls. Hey, the exit poll figures were out there, was I supposed to just ignore them?


There has been nothing to say on the Republican side, so the networks have been focusing a great deal on Obama's victory and particularly with how well he did among whites.

Polls closing at 8pm are AL, CT, DE, IL, MA, MO, NJ, OK, and TN. Based on those leaked exit polls, I'd expect the networks to call AL and IL for Obama and OK for Clinton pretty quickly.

How many states will be called for McCain?

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