Monday, February 25, 2008

Obama Leads Narrowly in Newest Texas Polls; Clinton Leads Among Early Voters

Four Texas polls were released today. All of them are close, but three of the four put Obama ahead. The CNN poll has Obama up 50-46%; Survey USA has Obama up 49-45%; American Research Group has Obama up 50-42%; and Rasmussen has Clinton up 46-45%.

The Survey USA poll shows that 25% have already voted. Among these early voters, Clinton apparently holds a 51-46% advantage. Thus, she may be banking a small advantage just like she did in California in the weeks before Super Tuesday.

According to the crosstabs for this poll, white voters break 56-39% for Clinton, which is actually up from the last poll Survey USA conducted in the state a week ago (she led 53-41% among whites then). But Obama has increased his support among African Americans (from 77% to 85%) and cut into Clinton's support among Hispanics. A week ago, Clinton held a 65-32% advantage over Obama among Hispanics, but that is now 52-39%, with 8% now undecided. That is the biggest shift in support in comparing these polls.

Clinton's advantage among women has decreased from 62-35% to 53-42% now. Her lead among Democrats has also shrunk from 55-41% to 49-47% now. On the other hand, Obama's advantage among independents has declined from 60-32% to 55-39%.

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