These tallies show that the estimates were pretty close in 4 of the 5 states, but way off in the fifth. I was off by 1 delegate for UT, 2 delegates for CT and DE, and 3 delegates in OK. However, the predictions were off by 15 delegates in MN. I'm not too surprised the MN estimate was off. First, it was a caucus state, and polling in caucus states tends to be far more difficult. Second, rather than an average from several polls, I had to rely on a single poll that was conducted January 18th-27th. The timing of the poll was particularly problematic, as it came too early to pick up any late shifts toward Obama.
Keep in mind that I did not make any predictions for AK, ID, KS, ND, and AR because there was no polling in any of those states. Obama ended up winning the delegates from those 5 states by a margin of 61-44.
I predicted that Clinton would win 52.4% of the delegates available from the states where polling data did exist...she is presently winning 51.1% from those states (again, with over 500 still to be determined).
I'll post another accuracy check once we have more information about the 500 or so outstanding delegates.