Friday, February 1, 2008

New Gallup Tracking Poll: Democratic Race Continues to Tighten and Some Evidence of the Effect of Edwards Withdrawal

Today's national Gallup tracking polls are out and they show the race continuing to tighten on the Democratic side and continuing to favor McCain among Republicans. Clinton's lead is now down to 3% nationwide, which is the margin of error for the survey. The most recent survey included interviews conducted the day before, day of, and day after the Edwards' announcement. Before his announcement, Edwards support stood at 12%, it is now down to 4% and will likely be gone altogether by tomorrow's poll (which will only include interviews conducted after his withdrawal). Neither Clinton nor Obama seems to have gotten all of this support, with both seeing relatively similar upticks in their percentage of support since his withdrawal (the changes are so small that it is impossible to say with any statistical confidence that one candidate has done better than the other since Edwards withdrew).

McCain continues to hold a 15% lead over Romney in the tracking polls. McCain's support has also increased signifcantly more than Romney's since his victory in Florida and subsequent endorsement from Giuliani.

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