Thursday, February 7, 2008

Mitt Romney Out

CNN is reporting, based on 3 different sources, that Romney is suspending his campaign. Not a big surprise, but notable nonetheless. How does this affect the Republican race? Do his supporters flock to Huckabee, or back the frontrunner?

UPDATE: Romney's exit raises the question of how well Huckabee would have to do in the remaining states to somehow keep McCain from picking up a majority of delegates. Based on an MSNBC account, the McCain campaign estimates that they have 775 delegates (of the 1,191 needed) with 963 yet to be determined. (They estimate that Romney has 284 and Huckabee 205). Based on those estimates, McCain needs to win 43% of what's left to have a majority of delegates going in. If conservatives did align behind Huckabee, it is certainly conceivable that he could keep McCain from getting what he needs, but how likely is it really? Will there now be pressure on Huckabee to suspend his campaign as well? It is essentially impossible for him to win it, but it is possible that he could deny McCain a pre-convention victory by staying in.

4 comments:

Mike said...

I'd guess it's about a 50/50 split for Romney voters between McCain and Huckabee. High knowledge voters ought to go McCain as should economic conservatives more generally. I think the "Fair Tax" hurts Huckabee's chances to do much more than increase the amount of religious conservatives who choose him. Even adding Romney and Huckabee's delegates together leaves a tough road to beat McCain given the delegate count.

It's all over but the shouting and the shouter is doing vocal warm-ups.

Winghunter said...

Well, lets see who we have left;

John "Juan" McCain
http://juanmccain.blogspot.com/

Mike "The Huckster" Huckabee
http://mikeyhuckabee.blogspot.com/

Aren't we in GREAT shape??

How the Republican Party Committed National Suicide By JB Williams
http://www.michnews.com/artman/publish/article_19227.shtml

MikeC said...

Ahh.. What about Ron Paul He is that candidate that most media agencies refuse to talk about.

Winghunter said...

Stock up on your dope quick Mike. Once the borders close it'll be grass clippings or nothing baby.

Ron Paul will be going back to the stirrups.