Chuck Todd is citing an 89 delegate advantage for Clinton among super delegates.
Howard Fineman is now discussing the super delegate picture. The big question, do the super delegates start endorsing now or do they hold out as long as they can?
So far there are over 100,000 votes for Edwards in CA...is early voting somewhat problematic for primary races where the choices are so fluid from week to week?
Still some drama....NM has yet to be called for the Dems.
I'm looking at the Missouri exit polls on the Democratic side and it is the first state I've seen where there is no gender gap. Obama and Clinton each split men and women evenly.
Over the past 48 hours, this blog has had over 1,000 visitors from 49 states (I guess they don't have internet access in ND?) and 42 other countries. I'm relieved that at least a few people have been tuning in.
Keith Olberman is evidently bored now as he was just suggesting that Clinton could call for a recount in MO. As I've already mentioned, it doesn't matter who wins if it is this close...so why bother?
LA County was supposed to be a big bastion of Obama support. Only 9% of the precincts in there, but Clinton is up 58%-31% in those precincts.
Obama absolutely cleaned up in caucus states tonight, winning over 60% of the vote in each one. The bad news for him, however, is that the only caucus states left appear to be Maine (this weekend), Hawaii, and Wyoming.
However, if FL and MI decided to get back into the game by holding a late party-sponsored delegate selection event, they would almost certainly hold caucuses. On the other hand, Clinton is strong in both of those states.
Interesting nugget from the CA exit polls. 42% of Democratic voters said that they decided who to vote for more than a month ago. Of those, 64% went for Clinton. Just think how many votes Clinton had banked with the tremendous amount of early voting.
On the other hand, Obama won (though less decisively) those who had decided within the last month.
On oddity...of those who said they decided how to vote "just today", 6% went for Edwards. Not sure how to explain that.
Howard Fineman follows up by noting that Obama is going to take a huge fundraising advantage over Clinton in February.
Obama seems to be ahead in the money, tied in the national polls, and tied in the committed delegates...does this mean we no longer have a frontrunner?
Chuck Todd (MSNBC) has Obama up 659 to 623 in delegates before you factor in NM and CA.
After trying to guess how things go in CA, he estimates 841 for Obama to 837 to Clinton.
In other words, this night is going to end in a tie for the Dems.
Interesting to watch the TV pundits struggling to figure out who won and who lost tonight. Delegate math really is unique in recent political history.
MSNBC is calling MO for Obama...as if it will make any difference in the delegate allocation if he wins by 5,000 or loses by 5,ooo votes.
One other note. John Edwards is pulling 11% right now in CA. Early voters, I assume. That is not enough to be viable, but still pretty significant share of the vote.
Just to give you a sense of how sensitive those estimates are to the Clinton lead in CA, if the state ended up 55%-40% for Clinton instead of 55%-32%, my estimate would have Clinton and Obama exactly tied in delegates for the night.
Just used the current vote percentages in each state to come up with my own estimate of how the delegates might break down when all is said and done. Here is what I came up with:
Clinton 848 delegates, Obama 807 delegates, with 26 delegates undecided (no results from NM).
That result is very sensitive to the CA results, which were 55-32% for Clinton when I threw them in the spreadsheet.
I can't see any candidate coming out of this with more than a 50 delegate lead (not counting superdelegates).
And NBC calling CA and MO for McCain.
I'm going to attempt a new delegate count estimate for Democrats in a minute based on current vote totals in the states. Be back with that in a minute...
NBC calls CA for Clinton. Let the spin begin...
Obama is still speaking...hey, it is still Super Tuesday in IL.
So, there are about as many different delegate counts out there as there are websites. And they are all over the map. Stay tuned.
Wow, how about Missouri...neck-and-neck for both parties primaries. Can McCain hold on? It really doesn't matter who wins at this point on the Democratic side, they'll both get about half the delegates.