Saturday, February 2, 2008

Who Benefits from Edwards' Withdrawal? (Volume II)

The newest Gallup tracking poll is out. This is the first of their tracking polls including only interviews conducted after the Edwards announcement (interviews conducted Jan. 30-Feb. 1). I've added a line to show the last day that Edwards was in the race.

Before Edwards exited, his support stood at 12%, Clinton was at 42%, and Obama was at 36%. Since then, Obama has gained 5% and Clinton has gained 6%. Given that the margin of error for the survey was 3%, we can't be confident that either candidate did better since Edwards left. The other problem is that the movement in the candidates' numbers could be chalked up to anything else that has happened since Edwards left, such as Thursday's debate. In fact, given that Clinton picked up only 1% on Wednesday and Thursday but 4% on Friday, does this actually reflect that her bump can be attributed to her performance in the debate? If her numbers continue to go up over the next two days, then that may provide more evidence for the latter explanation.

I didn't have time to download the Republican figure, but McCain's lead is up to 20% over Romney (44%-24%, with Huckabee receiving 16%).

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