Thursday, February 7, 2008

Still Waiting on the Final State-by-State Delegate Tallies

So far, I have not been able to find complete totals for AL, CA, CO, GA, IL, MO, NJ, NM, and TN. In some states, the totals are nearly complete. For example, MSNBC has 70 of MO's 72 delegates accounted for. But without those final tallies, I'm still waiting to find out how far off the poll-based estimates were. If anyone knows of a site with more complete information, please let me know.

We do now have complete tallies in 7 states. The poll-based estimates I produced were off by 1 delegate in AZ and UT, 2 delegates in CT and DE, 3 delegates in MA and OK, and a whopping 15 delegates in MN. However, in the states with polling data available, I predicted Clinton would take 52% of the delegates...right now, the tally is that she is taking 51%.


Hotline's blog has this interesting quote from the Obama camp: "We’re going to debate but it’s not going to be dictated by the Clinton campaign. We’ll have details on our schedule, including debates, soon." Or, to paraphrase, "We are the frontrunners now."

------ has details on the polling in the upcoming states. Of course, the details are few. The last poll from VA was taken in 2007. There are some more recent polls from MD but they are still several weeks old (they show Obama ahead there). I'm sure we'll get a few polls in the coming have to think the Washington Post is sponsoring a Potomac Primary poll, right?


Finally, with the help of CCPS staffers Alicia Prevost and Caitlin Zook, I'm putting together something on superdelegates that I think might be pretty interesting. I'm hoping to have something on that for you by the end of the week. Stay tuned...

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