Tuesday, February 5, 2008

Super Tuesday Live Blog, Headed Toward Midnight (11pm)


Clinton is performing significantly better than exit polls estimated in states like MA and NJ. In both states, initial exit polls showed an even split, yet she's winning MA 56-41 and NJ 54-44.

Obama appears to be off-setting that with his strong showing in caucus states though, so this really will be very close when all the delegates are counted up.


And just as I say that, here comes Obama, whose speech is beginning in the middle of McCain's. Again, how did his campaign let it come to this? Speaking 15 minutes before midnight. Were they trying to cut in on McCain on purpose? MSNBC and CNN both leave McCain for Obama.


Ok, so first (earlier tonight) the Obama camp was raising the expectations for how well they would do in the delegate count. Now they have still not sent their candidate, whose strength is his ability to deliver a good speech, out to speak tonight. Can anyone explain this decision to me? Is he waiting for the networks to call CA for Clinton? Is he waiting for everyone in states that vote in the next week to go to bed? Does this not seem like odd strategy to anyone else?

McCain is on now, so that will make Obama the last on TV tonight. I'd love to know why it happened that way.


Now that we are in the west, Romney is beginning to fare a bit better. He has won MN and MT.


So, which will the media go with..."Potomac Primary" or "Chesapeake Tuesday?" Russert is pushing the "Chesapeake Tuesday" label...perhaps I'll use that since Russert and I dine together quite often (ok, we dine at the same restraunts at the same time...2 Amy's in particular...not necessarily "together").


Chuck Todd (MSNBC) says that the delegates are presently breaking down Obama 594, Clinton 546.

He notes (as I did earlier) that Obama is cleaning up delegates in caucus states (CO was just called for him by FOX) and was able to keep Clinton's margins down in NY. Let's see how those CA margins turn out though. Remember that the CA vote translates into about 3.7 delegates per 1% of the vote.


No way Obama wins CA given that exit polls are showing him behind 51-44%. Supposedly we won't know the actual delegate allocation out of CA for a quite a while, given the complexity of figuring it out congressional district by congressional district.


According to NBC, Clinton wins AZ. The exit polls put her down by 2%, but she probably benefited from early voting there as well.


I just updated my delegate estimates based on the exit polls here and the estimates show Clinton and Obama essentially tied. However, there are 275 unallocated delegates because they were selected in caucus states where there was no exit polling. However, Obama seems to be winning those caucus states pretty big so far (2-1 margins in KS, ID, ND, for example).

Is Obama going to come out of this with more delegates than Clinton?


From the Hotline, Obama's people sees him ahead 606-534 in delegates.


Clinton speaking as local affiliates on east coast come on the air...did they carry any of this speech?

Polls closed in CA...not surprisingly, too close to call in that state.

Romney has won the ND caucuses "a place where he never lived, to our knowledge" according to Olberman.

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