You can see who we got right and who we got wrong here:
| Name | State | Office | Actual | Prediction | |||||||||
| Steven Alari | CA | DNC | Obama | Clinton | |||||||||
| Amy Klobuchar | MN | Senator | Obama | Obama | |||||||||
| Nancy Larson | MN | DNC | Obama | Obama | |||||||||
| Jean Lemire Dahlman | MT | DNC | Obama | Obama | |||||||||
| Hon. Margarett Campbell | MT | DNC | Obama | Obama | |||||||||
| Rep. David Price | NC | House | Obama | Obama | |||||||||
| Rep. Mel Watt | NC | House | Obama | Obama | |||||||||
| William Burga | OH | DNC | Clinton | Obama | |||||||||
| Bob Casey | PA | Senator | Obama | Obama | |||||||||
| Hon. Richard Donatucci | PA | DNC | Clinton | Obama | |||||||||
| Hon. Sophie Masloff | PA | DNC | Clinton | Clinton | |||||||||
| Hon Al Edwards | TX | DNC | Obama | Obama | |||||||||
| Wayne Holland Jr UT Chair | UT | DNC | Obama | Obama | |||||||||
| Dave Freudenthal | WY | Governors | Obama | Obama |
Now on to the new estimates. As before, I use information about the superdelegates who have committed to a candidate to generate predictions for the remaining unpledged superdelegates. I exclude superdelegates from DC and the territories because we lack complete data from those areas, and from IL, NY, and AR because superdelegates in those states have nearly unanimously cast their support for their native son/daughter. As always, information on the superdelegates is provided by the Democratic Convention Watch site. You can find more about they methodology I use here.
Check out the distribution of predicted support among unpledged superdelegates below.
Superdelegates who are between 40% and 60% likely to vote for Clinton/Obama are labeled as "unclear." There are 74 superdelegates in this range. There are 175 unpledged superdelegates who are at least 60% likely to vote for Obama; just 7 unpledged superdelegates are at least 60% likely to vote for Clinton. These predictions suggest that Obama will be able to cut into and even overtake Clinton's superdelegate lead in the coming weeks and months. Unless something significant changes, there seems to be little hope for the Clinton campaign in hoping that the superdelegates will help her erase Obama's lead.The estimates for each unpledged superdelegate are listed here. These estimates show that among Obama's most likely endorsers are Rep. Dennis Moore (KS) and Rep. Tom Allen (ME). Clinton's most likely endorsers include Reps. Jerry McNerney, Susan Davis, and Lois Capps (all from CA).
4 comments:
Who is John Edwards predicted to endorse?
You can improve your accuracy by changing your model to assume all superdelegates will go for Obama.
AR is the abbreviation for Arkansas. AZ would be the abbreviation for Arizona where McBush is Senator.
I meant Arkansas, where Clinton was First Lady when her husband was governor of the state.
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