Friday, April 18, 2008

New Democratic Superdelegate Predictions

As promised, I've updated the superdelegate predictions that I've been generating from time-to-time during this primary campaign. Before I get to the new predictions, it is worth checking in on how well the model has been doing in predicting who superdelegates are supporting. Of the 14 superdelegate endorsements made since our last predictions, we correctly predicted 11 and missed only 3 (Note: There were several other superdelegate endorsements, but we do not make predictions for superdelegate add-ons or for superdelegates in IL, NY, or AR). Overall, since we began generating these predictions, 96 superdelegates have announced their endorsements, and we have been correct on 68 of these. Thus, overall, the models have been correct over 70% of the time.

You can see who we got right and who we got wrong here:

Name State Office Actual Prediction

Steven Alari CA DNC Obama Clinton

Amy Klobuchar MN Senator Obama Obama

Nancy Larson MN DNC Obama Obama

Jean Lemire Dahlman MT DNC Obama Obama

Hon. Margarett Campbell MT DNC Obama Obama

Rep. David Price NC House Obama Obama

Rep. Mel Watt NC House Obama Obama

William Burga OH DNC Clinton Obama

Bob Casey PA Senator Obama Obama

Hon. Richard Donatucci PA DNC Clinton Obama

Hon. Sophie Masloff PA DNC Clinton Clinton

Hon Al Edwards TX DNC Obama Obama

Wayne Holland Jr UT Chair UT DNC Obama Obama

Dave Freudenthal WY Governors Obama Obama

Now on to the new estimates. As before, I use information about the superdelegates who have committed to a candidate to generate predictions for the remaining unpledged superdelegates. I exclude superdelegates from DC and the territories because we lack complete data from those areas, and from IL, NY, and AR because superdelegates in those states have nearly unanimously cast their support for their native son/daughter. As always, information on the superdelegates is provided by the Democratic Convention Watch site. You can find more about they methodology I use here.

Check out the distribution of predicted support among unpledged superdelegates below.
Superdelegates who are between 40% and 60% likely to vote for Clinton/Obama are labeled as "unclear." There are 74 superdelegates in this range. There are 175 unpledged superdelegates who are at least 60% likely to vote for Obama; just 7 unpledged superdelegates are at least 60% likely to vote for Clinton. These predictions suggest that Obama will be able to cut into and even overtake Clinton's superdelegate lead in the coming weeks and months. Unless something significant changes, there seems to be little hope for the Clinton campaign in hoping that the superdelegates will help her erase Obama's lead.

The estimates for each unpledged superdelegate are listed here. These estimates show that among Obama's most likely endorsers are Rep. Dennis Moore (KS) and Rep. Tom Allen (ME). Clinton's most likely endorsers include Reps. Jerry McNerney, Susan Davis, and Lois Capps (all from CA).


Anonymous said...

Who is John Edwards predicted to endorse?

Anonymous said...

You can improve your accuracy by changing your model to assume all superdelegates will go for Obama.

Anonymous said...

AR is the abbreviation for Arkansas. AZ would be the abbreviation for Arizona where McBush is Senator.

Brian Schaffner said...

I meant Arkansas, where Clinton was First Lady when her husband was governor of the state.