Tuesday, April 22, 2008

Age Breakdown of the Early Exit Polls in Pennsylvania: Good News for Clinton?

I noted yesterday that many of the differences in the pre-election polling in Pennsylvania appeared to be related to the assumptions that pollsters were making about the age-breakdown of the electorate. Public Policy Polling was the only survey showing an Obama lead, and they were also assuming a much higher share of the electorate (41%) was going to be between 18-45 years of age compared to the other pollsters (who were assuming a number around 20%). Well, the early exit polls hold good news for Clinton. These polls are showing that 27% of the electorate was in the 18-45 age group. This figure is much smaller than the Public Policy Polling sample, but pretty close to the Quinnipiac figure, which was 24%. Quinnipiac showed a 51-44% lead for Clinton in their last survey, so it will be interesting to see if they come close to the actual figure.

UPDATE (8:29pm): The exit poll figures have changed somewhat (or I misread them earlier). They are now showing that 31% of the electorate was in the 18-45 age group. As that number creeps higher, Obama may do better.

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