Wednesday, May 21, 2008

Assessing the Accuracy of the Oregon/Kentucky Predictions: The Big Winner was

While there are still votes to be counted in Oregon, it looks like Obama's margin in that state will be 18%, while Clinton won Kentucky by 35%. So, who came closest to getting the margins correct in both states? The figure below plots the predictions from three survey firms that released polls from both states during the last week of the campaign, along with Poblano's predictions based on demographic models and's poll averages.

While each of these organizations underestimated the size of the Obama margin in Oregon, came closest to getting the results correct in both states. The averages had Clinton winning by 35% in Kentucky (which she did) and Obama winning by 12% in Oregon. Among the individual pollsters, it appears as though Survey USA came closest on the pair of margins. While American Research Group was closets on Oregon (they predicted a 36% margin for Clinton), they greatly underestimated Obama's margin of victory in Oregon. Survey USA came closest on the Oregon margin and were only off on the Kentucky margin by 4%.

Unlike two weeks ago, when he nailed the NC and IN outcomes, Poblano's model was the farthest off last night. To his credit, Poblano did state that he thought his predictions for Kentucky were likely to be understating Clinton's support. He was right, he missed that margin by 16%. Poblano's model did come much closer on Oregon.

UPDATED: Post was updated at 2pm on May 21st to reflect the fact that Obama's lead in Oregon is now 18%.


jr1886 said...

I can see your point but I think PPP deserves the credit for Oregon. PPP was the most accurate.

kevinpeterson said...

Assessing the Accuracy of the Oregon winner is Pollster.


oregon drug rehab