Friday, March 21, 2008

Obama Recovery? Daily Tracking Numbers Turning After Speech on Race

I mentioned several days ago that one way to judge the political impact of Obama's speech would be to see what effect (if any) that it had on his numbers in the Gallup Daily Tracking Poll. The day after his speech, Obama's numbers had dropped to 42%, down 8% from 5 days earlier. In the meantime, Clinton support was at 49%, up 5% from the previous week. So, what effect did the speech have? Well, today's Gallup numbers are the first based exclusively on post-speech interviews. The numbers are presented below. The red line indicates the point at which the Wright story broke while the blue line indicates the day of Obama's speech.

While it is still early, the tracking poll appears to show that Obama's speech had the intended political effect of stopping his slide in the polls and even reversing the effect to some extent. Obama has gained 3% in two days while Clinton has lost 2%, and the gap between them is now back within the margin of error. It will be interesting to see if these numbers continue to move in the coming days. In the meantime, it is back to March Madness for me...

UPDATE: Quickly, after the incredible shot Western Kentucky just hit to beat Drake, this poll from CBS also indicates that Obama's speech was a success with voters.


Anonymous said...

Wright has been defused. It has been defused because this same pastor met Bill Clinton in the White House.
When I saw the picture of him and Bubba shaking hands, I laughed out loud.

As I see it the planned defense now on will be this pastor is now a 'comical' man. His image will be modiefed to make him not angry but a ranting old man. That is the new meme.

Those who were pushing Wright before are back pedalling now.

Anonymous said...

Ivoted in the Primary for Obama but there is no way I support him after I saw his spiritual leader

Anonymous said...

I do not understand why many people is doubting about Obama´s patriotism. It just takes to review his record and for instance, to remind his inspirational speech at the convention in 2004.

By the way, I am a peruvian who is following closelly the US 2008elections, in particular the nomination in the democratic party.