Tuesday, October 2, 2007

Primary Calendar Still Changing

There are rumors that Iowa, New Hampshire, and Nevada could all be moving to an earlier date in the calendar. It is no surprise that New Hampshire Secretary of State Bill Gardner wants to keep his hand hidden until the last possible moment, to prevent more states from leapfrogging ahead, but NH party leaders were quoted saying they expected the primary to be moved to January 8 (from its current Jan 22 date). This would be one week before Michigan's January 15 primary, which would bring New Hampshire into compliance with its own state laws.

But a January 8 date for New Hampshire would likely cause Iowa to move to an earlier date (from its current Jan 14), since Iowa law says that the caucuses must occur at least a week before any other contest. A January 1 caucus date would bring Iowa into compliance with its state law, but it is unlikely that Iowa party leaders will choose to hold caucuses on the holiday. Instead, the likely date disucssed last weekend (as reported in yesterday's Hotline's Wake-Up Call) was January 3 - a Thursday, which will give just enough distance before New Hampshire, but will still be in the calendar year of the election.

Would anyone even notice at this point if Nevada moved its Democratic caucusus too? Well the Hotline reported yesterday that Nevada Dems migt move a week earlier from the prime spot given to them by the DNC, to January 12. If that happens, it makes it even more likely that Iowa will move to an earlier date such as January 3, 4 or 5.

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