tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4111898318552745320.post7586952989492135070..comments2024-01-15T02:56:56.912-05:00Comments on CCPSBlog: Will Democrats Really Defect if Their Candidate Loses the Nomination?Brian Schaffnerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11810834587978662058noreply@blogger.comBlogger2125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4111898318552745320.post-10862529802228904302008-03-26T21:36:00.000-04:002008-03-26T21:36:00.000-04:00Sorry Schaffner...I posted this on Pollster.com......Sorry Schaffner...I posted this on Pollster.com...thought I would bring it to the source...<BR/><BR/>The above analysis just shows the percentage of McCain supporters who said they would defect vote for Gore instead of Bush. It does not, however, show what percent of the overall Republican primary voters the McCain defectors represented. I do not recall the contest between McCain and Bush, but I do not believe it was as close as Clinton and Obama. In other words, Clinton's share of Democratic primary voters is just about as large as Obama's. Thus, even a small RATE of defection might pose a more serious threat than in the past, because it would drain off a significant amount of voters. The fact that participation in the Dem primaries is so high -- including among Independents -- just compounds this. Bradley barely made a showing in the primaries. How did McCain do? <BR/><BR/>Also, under that Pew Study, all Bush needed to do was shift 3% for a tie (that's not even counting the margin of error!), and he had a long time to do it. The election ended in a tie statistically. So this is not saying much to me. <BR/><BR/>Also, identity politics and vitriol are just making it worse for the Dems. Chosing between the two conservative, heterosexual white dudes may not have established so much unmoving loyalty for Republican voters. Women and white voters who support Clinton and black voters who support Obama might actually lay it on the line if they feel slighted.<BR/><BR/>I would add that the internet has fundamentally changed things as well. The level of vitriol is exacerbated by daily venomous exchanges between both candidates' supporters online. This is a larger issue than in 2000. Not sure how that factors in to the drama, but online exchanges have certainly impacted my own sensibilities.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4111898318552745320.post-80168196668310783812008-03-26T17:48:00.000-04:002008-03-26T17:48:00.000-04:00It's also worth noting that both Bush and Gore won...It's also worth noting that both Bush and Gore won fairly overwhelmingly, so there wasn't quite the "my candidate should have won!" feelings that will exist here. And the # of Bradley and McCain supporters were much smaller, so 50% of them is probably much less than 30% of Clinton or Obama supporters today.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com